In September the Potential Gas Committee (PGC) celebrated its
40th year of service to the natural gas community and released
its latest biennial report (year-end 2004) on the U.S. natural
gas resource base. Their latest assessment of
technically-recoverable natural gas resources is 1,110 Tcf
(excluding proved reserves), which includes 950 Tcf
attributable to traditional reservoirs and 169 Tcf in coalbed
reservoirs. Compared to year-end 2002, the traditional
resources decreased by 8 Tcf, a less than 1% change, and the
coalbed gas resource increased by 0.4 Tcf. These minor changes
occurred even though approximately 38 Tcf of domestic natural
gas has been produced in the two-year period between reports.
The PGC has shown a net increase in the U.S.'s natural gas
resource base for the last 10 years, primarily as a result of
assessment of new, unconventional natural gas plays and
application of new drilling and completion technology. Since
independents drill the vast majority of U.S. gas wells, PTTC
felt it beneficial to ask John Curtis, Director of the PGC,
about the process PGC uses to develop their analysis.
Q: What is
the level of detail of published PGC estimates?
A: The
PGC reports gas resource estimates biennially in categories of
decreasing certainty: Probable, Possible and Speculative. For
each category, a minimum, most likely, and maximum resource
volume is estimated for each of 89 geological provinces. Mean
values are then calculated by statistical aggregation of the
minimum, most likely and maximum values for each category of
potential resource. This procedure allows for direct
comparison of PGC's estimates with gas resource assessments
made by other organizations, such as the USGS/MMS and the
National Petroleum Council. PGC's work is separate from, and
complements the work of these other assessment groups.
Q: Who is
involved in making the analyses and how do they work together?
A: The
PGC consists of 145 volunteer members from the natural gas
industry, |
government agencies and academic institutions. Those who
determine the remaining gas resource base are a subset of the
total membership and are selected because they make their
living exploring for and developing gas in the basins that
they assess. This is truly applied research, using the most
knowledgeable people that we can identify. The PGC members use
both public and private company data sources. We assess the
resource at the formation or play level, depending on data
availability, before reporting it at the province level, which
allows us to preserve data confidentiality. The results of
each updated assessment are formally peer-reviewed by other
PGC members to ensure the most accurate (and credible)
estimates.
Q:
What are some new features of the 2003-2004 report?
A: New
and enhanced features of the report include: Historical gas
production trends; "Top-ten" rankings of gas producers and
well production trends and performance; Canadian and Mexican
natural gas resource assessments; liquefied natural gas (LNG)
and methane hydrates; realities of developing offshore gas
resources; access to federal lands for future exploration and
production, and a comparison with U.S. gas resource
assessments reported by other organizations
Q: How can
someone obtain the latest report?
A: The
357-page PGC report, Potential Supply of Natural Gas in the
United States (December 31, 2004) may be ordered from the
Potential Gas Agency, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO
80401-1887 (Email jbcurtis@mines.edu, phone 303-273-3886 or
fax 303-273-3574). The cost of the printed report is US$495
(US$515 for foreign shipment), if payment accompanies the
order. The printed report and companion CD-ROM, are available
for US$950 (US$970 for foreign shipment). The CD-ROM also
|
contains a wealth of new information on historical production
trends and forecasts for seven onshore and offshore
petroleum-producing regions and 39 separate provinces in the
Lower 48 States and for Alaska. Website updates (www.mines.edu/research/pga)
are planned early in 2006.
Q: Looking
ahead, when will work begin on the year-end 2006 analyses?
What can industry do to help ensure the PGC's effort
continues?
A: We
will begin training and the new assessment process in the
summer of 2006 and have the estimates completed by January
2007. We plan to release the estimates and the other sections
that examine North American supply and demand in the Spring of
2007. The Committee is always looking for volunteers to assist
us in making credible estimates of the nation's remaining
natural gas resources. Continued financial support is also
needed and welcomed. The Potential Gas Committee functions
independently but with the guidance and technical assistance
of the Potential Gas Agency of the Colorado School of Mines.
The CSM Potential Gas Agency currently receives financial
support from the American Gas Association, Colorado Energy
Research Institute and Gas Technology Institute, as well as
other industry and government organizations and private
individuals. Tax-deductible donations can be made to the
Potential Gas Agency of the Colorado School of Mines. |
John B.
Curtis, associate professor in the Department of
Geology and Geological Engineering at the Colorado School of
Mines, has served as Executive Director of the Potential Gas
Committee, and Director of the CSM Potential Gas Agency since
1991. He spent 15 years in the petroleum industry prior to
joining CSM. His skill areas include hydrocarbon resource
assessment, petroleum geochemistry and petroleum exploration
and development. A certified professional geologist and
licensed geologist (Wyoming), Curtis is active in the American
Association of Petroleum Geologists, Rocky Mountain
Association of Geologists, and other organizations. Appointed
by the Governor of Colorado to the Interstate Oil and Gas
Compact Commission, he is also active on expert panels of the
National Research Council. Curtis received a B.A. and M.Sc. in
geology from Miami University, and a Ph.D. in geology from The
Ohio State University. He teaches undergraduate and graduate
courses in sedimentology and stratigraphy, petroleum geology,
petroleum geochemistry and a multi-disciplinary design course
at CSM. |
